Every published core claim, its falsifier, its resolve-by date, and the graded resolution. Resolutions are human judgment, recorded in plain view - the longitudinal record is the product.
| Company | Piece | Claim / falsifier | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| robotics | robot-marks-not-publicly-computable 2026-09-29 | In the robotics sector the multiple measures distance from audit, not quality of the business: ten marks rest on ten different instruments (filed, customer-announced, company-announced, people-sourced, single-aggregator), none audited the same way, and the year's largest round has no public price at all. Falsifier: Any of: audited filings showing the industrial demand the private marks assume (UBTech narrowing to profit, Unitree domain mix shifting from 73.6% research); the Dogotix Dec-31 1,000-IRON/month clock met with the completion 6-K; the Unitree lockup/first secondary print holding the 0B debut; an AgiBot prospectus range underwriting the 35-45x ask on checked books; an Atoms price surfacing by any route. Resolve by: 2027-03-31 | pending |
| mask | the-bigger-stencil-asml-photomask 2026-09-22 | The photomask layer is the semiconductor chain's newest structural chokepoint -- a merchant tool stack six-tenths Japanese with a two-for-two Japanese blank duopoly -- committed on paper to a 12-inch, 2031/2033 re-tool that its own supply base has not yet subscribed to, while the US's largest merchant shop waits on economics and China's DUV multi-patterning workaround compounds its dependence on the very stack it cannot localize (blanks, writers, actinic inspection, pellicles) under two live export-control perimeters. Falsifier: 2031 pilot or 2033 readiness slips or is abandoned; ASML/TSMC confirm existing High NA tools retrofit to 6x12 (two-format re-tool burden collapses); a second actinic patterned-mask inspection vendor ships at production grade; Samsung's 2028 memory or TSMC's 2030 dated commitment walks back; no named tool-vendor contracts by the 2027 SPIE cycle (the uncommitted-supply-base test); China joins large-format standard-setting, ships production EUV masks, or domestic blank production moves off zero. Resolve by: 2027-06-30 | pending |
| anthropic | anthropics-543-billion-compute-ledger 2026-09-15 | Anthropic's compute-procurement program, itemized and graded, totals ~$543.1B across ten priced commitments out of fourteen (census of 2026-09-14; a program total, not unique obligations): $64B FILED across two filings naming Anthropic PBC - the TeraWulf 8-K lease ($19B firm rent, 20yr/401MW at the former Century Aluminum smelter site, rent on phased delivery from late 2027) and SpaceX's 424(b)(4) ($45B in filed CANCELLABLE terms: $1.25B/mo through May 2029, ~325K GPUs, 90-day mutual exit after month 3) - $180B company-confirmed, $299.1B press-grade (Riot included: dollars landlord-stated, tenant named only by reporting; a row grades by its weakest element); backed floor $244B; evidence quality inverse to headline size (Google ~$200B, the largest line, never stated by any party); Series H bought 6.7% at $965B post (65/965), last company-written revenue $47B (May, the round post itself) vs relay-carried $65B (end-July); zero issuer Form Ds behind the $65B raise (111 vehicle filings, re-run Sep 14); the federal arc: $200M CDAO ceiling Jul 2025, Pentagon work terminated + supply-chain-risk designation Feb 2026, OneGov terminated, two lawsuits Mar 9, the Aug 27 ruling vacating the designation as unlawful retaliation (appeal expected); every published tally reconciled in-piece (ValueAdd $275B+ / Decoding Discontinuity $254B-~$450B / The Information ~$517B: gaps are scope and vintage, not fact). Falsifier: The public S-1's audited compute-commitments note and revenue line: if filed+company commitments print materially below ~$244B, or audited run-rate prints materially below the relay-carried $65B end-July figure (last company-written: $47B, May), the tier census or the trail was wrong; the napkin (65/965 = 6.7%) fails only if the round's actual post-money differs from the company's stated $965B; the risk factors grade against the pre-disclosure record (the Aug 6 congressional letter, the Aug 27 ruling, the essay's committed evaluator names); the designation litigation (appeal + D.C. companion) runs to the listing. Resolve by: 2026-12-05 | pending |
| memory | memory-after-the-sold-out-years 2026-09-10 | Inside the memory oligopoly the post-2027 scaling paths diverged: Samsung committed the first High NA memory insertion (DRAM HVM by 2028), SK hynix hedges with one High NA tool plus a fleet-doubling 0.33NA order (KRW 11.95T), and Micron made no High NA commitment at all - while the Chinese challengers legally cannot buy EUV at any price and the next mask standard is being set without them. Falsifier: Micron announces High NA production insertion before 2028 (fork collapses into a rush); Samsung's 2028 date slides toward 2030 without comment (positioning, not commitment); memory cell design stalls or 3D stacking accelerates (High NA loses purpose for memory); AI capex rolls over (fork inverts into an over-investment contest); the 2027 HBM contract round clears materially below the +50-140% forecasts (demand-crack wins, insertion dates slip). Resolve by: 2027-06-30 | pending |
| nscale | nscale-103-billion-claimed-21-million 2026-09-07 | Nscale tells IPO investors ~$103B in contracted revenue against ~$100M a quarter (bookings or revenue, the relays do not say); the named deals sum to ~$51B (the August figure), leaving ~$52B with no named counterparty; the only audited lines anywhere in the group are ~$21M FY2024 (Norwegian, KPMG); Aker's equity-method note expects results near administrative expenses through the development phase Falsifier: FY2025 accounts (due 30 Sep 2026) and/or the S-1 show booked revenue ramping toward the ~$18B annualized contracted claim - or they do not; Aker's next carrying-value note is the second test Resolve by: 2026-12-31 | confirmed Resolved early by the S-1 (filed 2026-09-18, eleven days after publication). The fork held at filing grade on both sides: TCV $103.4B active+contracted filed take-or-pay vs the $103B investor-doc claim; audited revenue $19.1M FY2024 / $33.0M FY2025 / $140.6M H1-2026. The piece ~$21M FY2024 was the NOK census approximation of the audited $19.1M, corrected in place 2026-09-19. The unnamed $52B resolved to Microsoft (~$43.8B SOWs through 2033); concentration filed sharper (MSFT+Anthropic 86% of TCV). Ramp test: H1-2026 annualizes ~$281M vs the ~$18B implied - direction arrived, magnitude did not; RPO $34.5B recognition is the standing watch. Aker Q3 carrying note pending (corroborative; Q2 carried at the $14.6B Series C post). |
| two_stacks | two-stacks-the-ai-compute-supply 2026-08-26 | Both AI compute stacks converge at one chokepoint: every advanced-node path in the Western graph routes through ASML's sole-source EUV, which itself depends on two sole-source German suppliers (Trumpf lasers, Zeiss SMT optics). The chain narrows as it deepens - 23 direct NVIDIA dependents, 13 TSMC dependents, 1 EUV supplier, 2 tool suppliers - and the newest cross-stack evidence (Xiaomi's XRING self-sufficiency chips all fabricated by TSMC) deepened the dependency rather than thinning it. Falsifier: Volume Chinese sub-7nm production without ASML-serviced DUV (SMIC 5nm-class at yield), a Chinese EUV-class scanner in production use, or a Western frontier training run booting at scale on zero TSMC-fabricated accelerators; also refuted in part if the graph-derived counts (23 NVIDIA / 13 TSMC / 1 ASML / 2 German suppliers) fail re-derivation as the graph evolves. Resolve by: 2026-11-26 | pending |
| etched | etched-the-29-percent-round 2026-08-18 | Etched's $300M Series C at a claimed $10.3B post-money bought the entire syndicate roughly 2.9% of the company - the thinnest new-money slice of the 2026 AI-silicon set, at the only company in that set with no shipped product. The percentage is arithmetic against the company's own round figures; the valuation is a claim. Falsifier: A disclosed cap table, share count, or next-round/IPO filing showing the C syndicate's new-money stake materially above ~3%, or round economics (e.g. a large secondary component) that overturn the napkin. Post-publication datapoint already on record: the Aug 19 $700M Series D at $21B (a sibling 3.3% napkin), resolution judgment reserved to the operator. Resolve by: 2026-11-18 | pending |
Rendered 2026-09-30T03:38:57Z from the live graph. The arithmetic cannot lobby you.